Taking the big states

Dem candidate Jennifer Granholm has maintained a comfortable lead over GOP candidate Dick Posthumus in Michigan's governor's race, 55-42. The race to succeed Republican governor Engler is just one of several that threaten GOP control over the country's largest states.

Dems are also poised to take over the governorships of Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Florida and Texas are not out of reach.

While often overshadowed by the sexier battle for Congress (did I just call Congress "sexy"???), governorships are key for the Dem chances in '04. Governors control the state's political machinery and bully pulpit, giving their party's candidate a real and coveted boost.

Assuming current trends play through November, the twelve biggest state governorships will look like this in '04:

California (D)
Texas (R)
New York (R)
Florida (R)
Pennsylvania (D)
Illinois (D)
Ohio (R)
Michigan (D)
North Carolina (D)
Georgia (D)
New Jersey (D)
Virginia (D)

The top twelve states will split for Dems 8-4. When Bush "won" in 2000, the split favored Republicans 9-3. And if the Dems can come together and take out Jeb in Florida...

Update: as a reader kindly pointed out in the comments, I originally forgot to include Ohio, which will definitely remain Republican. I have updated the post above to reflect this oversight. I also expanded the list to include the top 12 states, as opposed to just 10. NC, GA, and NJ are all tied for 8th on the list with 15 electoral votes. That would give us 11 states in the 'top 10' list -- quite a bit confusing. And 11 is just too weird a number for me anyway, so I went with an even dozen. Much neater.

Posted August 23, 2002 07:46 AM | Comments (3)