Thursday | October 24, 2002
Surveying the Senate races
Call me a partisan optimist, but with 12 days left before the Big Day, I'm seeing a +4 Dem pickup in the Senate. Here's the analysis:
Missouri: I've been less than optimistic about this race the last two months. Sen. Carnahan (D) is easily the Dems most endangered incumbent, and her campaign skills (or lack thereof) betrays the fact that she is not a politician. However, polls have generally shown her with a slight lead, and a competent showing in her first debate (the second is tonight) probably reassured voters that she's up to par. While this is a true tossup, I'll go out on a limb and predict she'll pull through. Carnahan wins
South Dakota: Sen. Johnson (D) is acting as if he's put the race away --- pulling negative ads, requesting his GOP candidate do the same. The GOP has been reduced to hysterical rantings about a handful of illegal voter registrations and inflaming racial tensions with the state's Democratic-leaning Native American population. Either Johnson's braggado stems from great internal polling, or it's all a bluff. I'm still not convinced South Dakota voters are willing to suffer the consequences of a "minority leader" Daschle, and Daschle will be spending plenty of time on the campaign trail reminding his state's voters of this. Daschle wins. And so does Johnson
(As an aside, remember when the GOP launched, with great fanfare, its effort to demonize Daschle a la Gingrich? That was a bust...)
So yeah, big surprise. This partisan Democrat predicts the Senate's three most endangered Democrats will win. My instinct is still that Carnahan doesn't look good for an incumbent, but we'll see.
As for the GOP, things are looking bleak on the dark side of the aisle.
Arkansas:Posted October 24, 2002 11:50 AM | Comments (0)