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Sunday | November 10, 2002
Taking aim at pre-election polls

Amongst the biggest losers in last weekend's election were most polling outfits, whose numbers bore little resemblance to actual outcomes and didn't provide the smallest hint of the coming GOP wave.

One notion from which we should quickly disabuse ourselves: polls didn't skew to the right. Quite clearly they skewed left as they overestimated the number of Democratic voters. One other revelation: Survey USA polls were no worse off than more "legitimate" polling outfits, which isn't to say they are reliable, just no less reliable than the competition.

So here goes a quick look at some selected key races:

Arizona Governor

Actual:
Napolitano 49
Salmon 45

Survey USA (10/31):
Napolitano 49
Salmon 45

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Napolitano 49
Salmon 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Napolitano 49
Salmon 45

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.


Arkansas Senate

Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

California Governor
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Colorado Senate
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Florida Governor
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Georgia Governor
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Georgia Senate
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Illinois Governor
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Iowa Senate
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Iowa Governor
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Missouri Senate
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

South Carolina Senate
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

South Carolina Governor
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Wisconsin Governor
Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Actual:
Bush 56
McBride 43

Survey USA (11/4):
Bush 51
McBride 46

Garin Heart Young (10/29):
Bush 48
McBride 45

Mason Dixon (10/25):
Bush 51
McBride 43

Verdict: The partisan GHY (D) poll underestimated Bush's support, but otherwise the polls were fairly accurate.

Posted November 10, 2002 08:16 PM | Trackback (0)

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