Tuesday | February 11, 2003
Cattle Call 2004: 2/11
To clarify, the Cattle Call is not a predictor of who will win -- it merely takes a snapshot of the current lineup at the moment. That said, we have movement this week, with Edwards taking a hit and Dean (by default, not by accomplishment) moving up. I'm also moving Graham back into the contender's list at the expense of Gephardt. I can't wait to knock Lieberman of his #2 perch, but he's done nothing to merit the demotion. I still believe he has no chance for the nomination, but for now his name ID has value.
Incidentally, this blurb by The Prince of Darkness (Novak) has MASSIVE repercussions on the campaign:
Prominent Democrats, encouraged by National Chairman Terry McAuliffe, want more 2004 presidential primary elections pushed up to Feb. 3. That will become, in effect, the first nationwide primary."Super Tuesday" on February 3rd? This would be huge -- giving the money candidates (Kerry, Lieberman, and Edwards) a huge strategic advantage over the second tier. If those big states do, indeed, make the switch, expect massive shifts in the dynamics of this race.
Previous rankings: 1. John Kerry, 2. Joe Lieberman, 3. John Edwards, 4. Howard Dean, 5. Dick Gephardt, Others: Clark, Hart, Moseley-Braun, and Sharpton.
Most recent polling:
NEW HAMPSHIREWithout further ado...
1. John Kerry
Then again, Kerry's environment speech got wide (and approving) coverage, which indicates he can get press (important!). And it's hard to argue with the poll above. He's got a solid lead in NH and is elbowing Gephardt aside in his own turf. And he's one of the lucky few with $$$.
2. Joe Lieberman
3. Howard Dean
Action with the U.N. is where we should be aiming at right now. We should be going back and set a timeline with the U.N. for absolute disarmament. I've chosen 60 days. And then there would be military action.But he continues to get good press, and his grassroots organizing will soon be the envy of the field. All the money in the world can't buy what energized volunteers can accomplish.
Still, Dean moves up more as a result of Edward's horrid week than anything of his own making.
4. John Edwards
What went wrong? South Carolina, where his campaign staff seemed to violate his pledge to adhere to the NAACP-led boycott of the state. Nevermind that the SC NAACP defended Edwards, or that this flap was much ado about nothing. The press (and the Right) jumped all over it -- trying to make Edwards look Gore-like, and he was slow to react. Then on Chris Matthews he refused to say Clinton was a great president and said Bush was legitimately elected. Way to rally the base, John. His pro-war, anti-war dance ain't helping matters either.
And then we have those poll numbers above.
What's going well? Well, the White House still is stating (whether seriously or for disinformation) that it fears Edwards the most. And the guy has lots of $$$.
5. Bob Graham
But he is recovering from heart surgery, and he will definitely lag the other candidates in campaigning and fundraising. And that's assuming he can assume a vigorous schedule soon, which may not be possible as he recovers fully from his surgery.
6. Dick Gephardt
Others: Biden, Clark, Dodd, Hart, Kucinich, Moseley-Braun, and Sharpton.