Wednesday | February 19, 2003
Cattle Call: 2/19
Soto will be guest hosting over the next few days as work and other responsibilities suck me dry. However, I did promise this Cattle Call, so here goes.
Well almost, before I get to the rankings, check out MyDD's look at how the primary schedule is shaping up:
- 1/19: Iowa Caucuses
- 1/27: New Hampshire Primary
- 1/19: Delaware "non-binding" Primary
- 2/03: South Carolina Primary
- 2/03: Missouri Primary
- 2/03: Arizona Primary
- 2/03: Washington Primary
- 2/07: Michigan Caucuses
- 2/10: Virginia Primary
- 2/17: Oklahoma Primary
- 2/24: Michigan Primary
- 3/02: Super Tuesday (Much of the NE, New York, and California)
- 3/09: Super Tuesday (Florida, Texas, and the South)
None of this is set in stone -- states have until March to set their schedules, but it does look like McAuliffe will get his wish and see an extremely compact primary schedule (giving the eventual nominee more time to raise money for the general campaign).
In any case, back to the task at hand. Last week's rankings: 1) Kerry, 2) Lieberman, 3) Dean, 4) Edwards, 5) Graham, 6) Gephardt, and others.
Most recent polling (these numbers are now two weeks old).
1. John Kerry
So the big question still is: is he still a "man"? Cancer thing was handled well, and even if it wasn't, who cares? Nation is obsessed with war. And the Jewish/Irish thing is much ado about absolutely nothing. If this is the best the Right can throw up against him right now, then he's in good shape.
2. Joe Lieberman
His 100 percent name ID is a huge asset, but can it be more painfully clear that his Chickenhawk views are WAY out of the Democratic mainstream?
3. John Edwards
Edwards reclaims the #3 spot from Dean, mostly on the strength of his Estrada work. Granted, the general electorate wouldn't know what a "filibuster" was if it hit them on the head, but it was a great performance nonetheless for red meat partisans and liberal advocacy groups.
And he didn't flub anything. Always a plus.
4. Howard Dean
If you give an important foreign policy speech, and no one hears it, was the speech ever delivered? Then again, the anti-war movement will give him a boost (even if the protesters don't know this yet).
The big question, of course, is whether Kucinich's entry helps or hurts dean. The "hurt" people say he splits the anti-war vote. The "help" people say it'll help Dean look more moderate. I say they are both right and it's a wash. Ultimately, no effect.
5. Bob Graham
It's pretty sad when the unannounced guy in the recovery room is snagging the number five slot, but on paper Graham offers the most potent threat to Bush. And all simply because of his home address.
Of course, Graham will need more than that to snag the nomination.
6. Dick Gephardt
One of these weeks I'll have something nice to say about him. This ain't it.
And given last weekend's protests, doesn't Gephardt's pro-war betrayal look particularly stupid?
Rule #1: You do not betray one of your most deeply held convictions, no matter how controversial, minutes after announcing your candidacy for president. Who the hell can ever trust this guy on anything, ever again?
He'll try to talk war, yet he'll only be asked about abortion.
8. Carol Moseley-Braun
Sigh... Does she really have nothing better to do? At least she's not running for Senate in Illinois, where she had the potential of derailing the Dems one sure-thing Senate pickup next year.
9. Al Sharpton
You know he'll be around to the bitter end... It's a luxury in which those who have no expectation of winning can indulge.
Others: Biden, Clark, Dodd, and Hart.
Posted February 19, 2003 01:15 PM | Comments (75)