Over at the Political State Report, two of the PA contributors (one Republican, the other Democrat) have pooled together to offer a brilliant in-depth look at Rep. Toomey's primary challenge to GOP Sen. Arlen Specter.

The verdict? Spected is strongly favored, enjoying advantages in financial support, and institutional party support. The authors believe those advantages will overcome Toomey's ideological advantages in a GOP primary (where party activists are more likely to vote).

As for Democratic chances, the authors give Republicans a slight edge, regardless of who wins the GOP primary. Key to Dem chances will be the ability to nominate a candidate that best matches up against the eventual GOP nominee. If Specter wins, a conservative Dem would have the better chance. If Toomey wins, a liberal Dem would be best (read the article for the logic).

In either case, Pennsylvania will be in play in 2004 -- a good break for the Democrats (who need every break they can get to reclaim the Senate).