There is much talk right now about the decreasing amount of anti-aircraft fire over Baghdad. The theories are endless? Are AA guns getting destroyed? Command and control facilities damaged? Morale? Ammo running out?

Nah. The simple answer is that after firing millions of rounds at incoming US and UK jets, nothing is getting shot down. Iraqi guns don't have the range or the sophisticated tracking radars to seriously threaten the invading bombers.

And the Iraqis only need to look to Chechnya to learn a valuable lesson -- its better to use AA guns against helicopters and armor than against hard to hit, fast-moving aircraft. There's is little need for these AA guns to expose themselves before they can be truly useful in Baghdad's defense. And as for AA missiles, they can have a far more devastating effect on helicopters ferrying troops and supplies supporting the seige of Baghdad.

Thus far, waning AA fire is no cause for optimism.