I received this from "AC" (not the one from the comment boards). It's good stuff. All White House quotes come from this White House release from June 7, 2002.
White House, June 2002: “One year after President Bush signed the tax cut into law, the economy is growing, consumer spending is up and America is on the path to economic recovery.”
Reality, April 2003: Almost two years after the tax cut, the opposite is true. The economy is now barely growing, far less than the required 3% growth needed to create jobs and provide sustainable growth. The economy looks shaky as jobless claims remain above 400,000, the unemployment rate refuses to drop, the percentage of the population in the labor force continues to shrink, the deficit continues to expand, industrial production and retail sales continue to shrink, the stock market is unable to recover and stay at previous levels and consumer confidence remains at all time lows.
White House, June 2002: “The tax cut will help create 800,000 jobs by the end of 2002.”
Reality, April 2003: From June 2002 onwards, the economy lost 185,000 private sector jobs by the end of 2002, and has lost an additional 243,000 private sector jobs so far in 2003. This brings the total private sector job losses since the recession began in March 2001 to 2,629,000. This is the worst performing job market in modern American economic history. 25 months after the recession, the private sector job market has yet to bottom out. In the 1990-1991 recession, the private sector job market bottomed out after 20 months. In 1981, after 25 months, the private sector job market had not only bottomed out after just 14 months, it had returned to pre-recession levels after 25 months.
White House, June 2002: “The tax cut helped shorten the duration and impact of the recession.”
Reality, April 2003: The NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, has yet to agree this recession is even over yet over two years after it began because of conflicting signals from the economy.
White House, June 2002: “Economic growth has returned: 5.6% in the first quarter of 2002 compared to 1.2% in 2001.”
Reality, April 2003: The economy grew only 1.4% for 4Q2002 and is predicted to only grow 1.8% for 1Q2003. Total growth for the year 2003 is predicted to be only around 2.5%, again, far less than the 3% required to create jobs and provide sustainable growth.
White House, June 2002: “If Congress holds spending to the Presidents budget, we will return to a budget surplus by 2005.”
Reality, April 2003: The president’s budget this year projects deficits of $300 to $400 billion for this year and next, before war costs, new tax cuts, and new spending plans (Medicare, prescription drugs, homeland security) are fully factored in. Furthermore, CBO projects the budget is not projected to return to surplus until at least 2008, and at least 2012 if the Social Security surplus is not included in the estimates.