Thursday | April 17, 2003
Cattle Call 2004: 4/17
Last edition's rankings: 1) Kerry, 2) Dean, 3) Gephardt, 4) Edwards, 5) Lieberman, 6) Graham, 7) Sharpton, 8) Kucinich, 9) Moseley Braun, and others.
This week's rankings:
1. John Kerry
Can't think of anything significant out of his camp this past week. He still seems to be basking in the afterglow of his resounding victory against DeLay. But there has also been nothing to cause any slippage so he keeps his comfortable lead over the rest of the pack.
His motto seems to be "slow and steady wins the race".
2. Howard Dean
Really, we all know he's not a one-note candidate. But by "we", I mean people who read this weblog. The general public has heard nothing beyond his anti-war stance. Seriously, do you think anyone gives a damn about health care right now? The dynamics may change next year, but for now, National Security dominates to political landscape, and Dean has a high-profile stance on the issue. That's what will get the play. Not health care or social security or deficits or (dare I say it?) civil unions.
It is precisely his anti-war stance that has catapulted him into the top tier, so it's not necessarily a bad thing. But you can't vault to the top on a high-profile issue like war, and the whine that no one wants to hear your social security plan. For better or for worse, he's got to play out the war hand (for the time being).
3. John Edwards
Yeah yeah, he's got the money. And who cares where he got the money? A dollar from a lawyer is the same as a dollar from a mill worker. Those of you obsessing on that fact simply need to move on.
Sure, he got Axelrod, but his campaign has been a veritable merry-go-round of campaign consultants. They literally come and go. I won't be too impressed unless Axelrod actually sticks around. But ultimately, the real question at this point is whether Edwards can snag some support. So far, I'm not seeing any.
4. Dick Gephardt
Bombs on the fundraising front. Has been all but invisible. He may be giving great speeches and offering bright new ideas, but if no one listens or cares it's just an exercise in futility.
5. Bob Graham
His first campaign forays have drawn good reviews, and he did raise $1 million without lifting a finger in Q1. Graham could easily catapult into the top tier with a solid Q2 effort.
6. Joe Lieberman
Hoo boy. His fundraising stank. He excites no one. But his poll numbers are still high enough (100 percent name ID) to keep him in contention. I still think he doesn't make it to the first primary.
7. Al Sharpton
As some of you know, I've become a fan of Al. Gives the best speeches of any of the candidates, and all the venom is directed at the right target -- Bush.
9. Carol Moseley-Braun
I need to start a "Drop out and spare yourself some self-respect" campaigh.
Others: Biden, Clark, and Hart. Until they announce, they won't rank.
Incidentally, I've received some additional information that points to a Hart run. Nothing conclusive, but the signs are all pointing to "yes".
Full disclosure: I am currently a Clark supporter.
p.s. The electoral calculator will back soon.
Posted April 17, 2003 07:53 AM
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