Straws in the Wind

Culled from PollingReport:

In the June 17-19 polling period, Ipsos-Reid has W's "Definite Reelect" number at 40%, down from 44% two weeks earlier.

That's near his all-time low of 38% in early March (when one faction was mad at him for taking us to war, and another faction was mad at him for not taking us to war fast enough).

In other words -- despite the Trifecta, the War, the Tax Cuts, the Bully Pulpit, the Money Machine and the Mighty Wurlitzer -- Dubya still hasn't "made the sale".

Confirming signals include a 7 point leap for Dem's in I-R's congressional generic ballot (often a wobbly indicator) ... a 7 point drop in W's net job approval (I-R, unconfirming by FOX or Gallup) ... and a WHOPPING 14-point swing in I-R's net Right Track / Wrong Track indicator (confirmed by a 13 point swing in Gallup's corresponding indicator, over a five week interval).

The last result may reflect shifts from war focus to domestic focus ... or it may tell of a deeper shift.

Harris reports 50% of us think the tax cut is a good thing, but an overwhelming majority of us don't think there's much in it for us personally! Only 8% of Republicans -- and 6% of independents -- think their own family will benefit "a lot". (In one of those quirks of polling, respondents are consistently more likely to think it helps some other demographic "a lot".)

In other business, "don't know", "not sure" and "someone else" are gaining ground in several polls of Democratic presidential primary preference. Interesting.

And who might that "someone else" be?

RonK, Seattle

Posted June 21, 2003 11:58 AM | Comments (85)