Arnold voted for Prop 187

For the unitiated, the California GOP's long slide into oblivion began with its ardent support for Proposition 187 -- the ballot initiative that denied health and education benefits to undocumented immigrants.

The issue is a killer, especially with California's large Latino and Asian communities.

Well, it turns out Schwarzenegger voted for Prop 187.

The Republican has promoted himself as the candidate in California's gubernatorial recall who can best appeal to the state's politically and ethnically diverse electorate.

But Democrats were quick to jump on the disclosure as a chink in the action hero's armor.

The GOP-backed Proposition 187 to deny health care and public education to illegal immigrants was passed by a wide margin, although it was eventually ruled unconstitutional. It remains a contentious issue and a litmus test for some voters, particularly Hispanics, to gauge whether a candidate is immigrant-friendly.

Furthermore, in a political miscalculation of epic proportions, Armold named former California Gov. Pete Wilson as chairman of his campaign. Wilson is the architect of Prop 187, and arguably the most hated man in California.

Schwarzenegger has just given lie to his claims of moderation in the eyes of most Californians. Yet his party's right flank is occupied by Simon and McClintock. In addition, he's taking oncoming fire from Rush Limbaugh and other right-wing personalities.

We have the baseline poll for the race. Let's see how things look in two weeks.

Time/CNN 8/8

Recall
Keep: 35
Remove: 54

Candidates
Arnold Schwarzenegger 25
Cruz Bustamante 15
Tom McClintock 9
Bill Simon 7
Peter Ueberroth 4
Arianna Huffington 4
Larry Flynt 4
John Garamendi 2
Other 2

Garamendi is out, so give those voters to Bustamante. It's already a much closer race than the press would have you believe.

And in any case, it's impossible to poll this race properly. The reasons poll numbers on the same issue vary is because the pollsters must make assumptions about who will go to the polls. Given there has never been a recall election like this before, there is no way to know who will turnout. CNN is clear about this:

Because of the nature of the unprecedented recall election, the poll does not project a winner or predict how people might vote.

Posted August 11, 2003 08:23 AM