Friday | September 19, 2003
Show Me State could show us a Democratic senator again
By Stephen Yellin
For our party to regain the Senate in 2004 (a difficult task), we have to be able to win races that lean Republican, but are competitive. One such race is Missouri. Traditionally a competitive border state (going to Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but to Bush in 2000), with reasonably close elections down the ballot, it offers an opportunity for Democrats to challenge Republican incumbents.
Senator Christopher "Kit" Bond is running for a 4th term, after winning with 53% in 1998. He won that race by holding his Republican base and by doing well among black voters, who mistrusted Democratic AG Jay Nixon. Nixon drew 44%. In 1992, Bond won 52-46% over Geri-Rothman Serot, a councilwoman who raised few funds. Finally, Bond won a open seat in 1986 to succeed Senator Tom Eagleton, defeating Lt. Governor Harriet Woods by a narrow margin. So, despite his incumbency and his reputation for bringing in the bacon, Bond's track record indicates that he's vulnerable.
This is confirmed by a DSCC poll that shows him with a 41% reelect number. While DSCC polls, like all partisan polls, help its party with numbers, it does have a track record of identifying vulnerable GOP incumbents. For example, Senator Spence Abraham (R-Michigan) had a 41% reelect number in 1999, and he lost narrowly in 2000 to Debbie Stabenow. Senator Tim Hutchinson in 2001 had a 39% reelect number, and he lost big time to Mark Pryor in Arkansas. So, the DSCC poll, plus the Show Me State's competitive past, suggests Bond is vulnerable. But can Nancy Farmer, the State Treasurer, beat him?
I say that she can, and here are three reasons why:
Posted September 19, 2003 10:49 AM | Comments (59)