Monday | October 13, 2003
State of the Democratic Race
Just some quick thoughts on the primary race:
And fact is, Clark is faring poorly in the first seven primary states. There's a real question about Clark's chances if he can't pull off a victory the first month of the election season, despite whatever the national polls might say.
Early signs are that Dean will go negative on Clark. I would let Edwards and Lieberman take on Clark (they are more directly affected by Clark's candidacy at this point), but I've never run a national presidential race before. So what do I know?
The problem with Gep is that even an Iowa victory leaves him with little else. He survives to fight another day, but he'd be left broke and facing a hostile calendar strong competition in the following states (against candidates with geographical advantages like Clark and Gephardt).
A Gep Iowa victory might resemble McCain's 2000 New Hampshire victory.
However, Dean has solidified his lead in the Granite State. So expect Kerry to spend a significant portion of his sizeable cash hoarde to try and take down Dean. This should go negative, as Kerry will go for broke.
Edwards has made SC his firewall, but Clark needs SC as well. So does Lieberman. Things will get rough.
Thus Edwards, more so than any other candidate in the race, has an interest in brining down Clark as soon as possible. The others may want to weaken him in expectation that it will be become a Clark and anti-Clark race. But for Edwards, the road to the nominantion runs straight through Clark.