Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Sunday | September 29, 2002

Yummy poll goodness update

Thanks to Political Wire, MyDD and his message boards, and my own intreprid sleuthing, I bring the following poll updates:

The embattled governor of Iowa, Tom Vilsack (D), suddenly looks far less embattled. A Des Moines Register poll shows Vilsack with a solid 18 point lead. This follows Saturday's news, from the same paper, that Sen. Harkin was opening up his lead against his GOP challenger 54-34. That poll was conducted prior to last week's wiretapping "scandal". However, Harkin's campaign manager resigned over the tape, and the whole issue should blow over. Harkin may see some erosion of support, but with his commanding lead, it should provide Gangske small comfort.

In South Dakota, the Senate race remains in a statistical tie, with Johnson carrying a narrow 44-43 lead. This will remain one of the nation's tighest, and may come down in large part to strong Dem efforts to register Native Americans to vote. Check out MyDD's excellent analysis of the SD race.

Over in Montana, Democrat Senator Max Baucus remains solidly in command despite GOP efforts to make a competitive race. The Mason-Dixon poll, in addition to giving Baucus a 54-35 lead, also shows that challenger Taylor has high negatives. This one's in the bag (and has been for months).

Another Mason-Dixon poll, this time in New Mexico's governor's race, shows that Dem Bill Richardson has a good 46-38 lead over his Republican challenger John Sanchez. This is Sanchez' best showing in any poll (including partisan ones released by his campaign). However, Richardson is attracting 12 percent of the Republican vote, which, the article tells us, will be Sanchez' kiss of death.

In Florida's guv race, the latest Survey USA poll (not the most accurate) shows Bush with a razor-thin 49-48 lead. Check out the list of previous poll results. While McBride's numbers have fluctuated about 10 points, all recent polls have Bush at either 48 or 49 points. This one will go down to the wire, through a recount, and to the courts.

In Mass., Democrat Shannon O'Brien is riding her popularity among women to a 43 to 36 percent lead in that state's governor's race. While in Hawaii, the GOP may not have a lock on the governor's mansion. After a summer of large deficits, the Dem candidate, Mazie Hirono, is within eight points of Lingle, the GOP frontrunner (39-47).

The poll results this year have been surprisingly similar to those in the Lingle-Cayetano matchup in 1998. Then, Lingle started the summer with a 20-point lead, and saw that collapse by November.

That race was characterized by a dramatic shift in "union households," where one or more people belongs to a union, and among voters between the ages of 18 and 35.

Many people in those groups switched from Lingle to Cayetano in the final months of the campaign.

The latest poll shows a similar pattern this year, with Hirono gaining support among members of union households and younger voters in the past four months, at Lingle's expense.

Finally, here's some good news for the three Republicans that visit this site (you know who you are!): Democratic Sen. Robert Toricelli is in a free fall, and now trails GOP challenger Douglas Forrester 47-34. This poll contradicts a slew of earlier polls showing a much closer race, but the results are perfectly reasonable considering Toricelli's considerable ethical problems. This will probably be the GOP's lone bright spot in a bleak (for them) November. But this race is not in the bag -- the abortion issue may yet swing this race back in Toricelli's favor.

Posted September 29, 2002 10:33 PM | Comments (0)


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