Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Monday | October 07, 2002

Weekend poll updates

I discuss the latest Iowa polls in a post below. Most of the other recent polls have also been positive for the Democrats.

The exception is Ohio's gubernatorial candidate, where GOP Gov. Taft is pulling away from his woefully underfunded Democratic challenger (so poor he can't run television advertisement). Taft now leads 50-41, above the magical 50 percent line, and sitting on cash for plenty of television advertising from here to election day. This race had seemed to close in September, with Taft's lead a narrow 47-38, but the latest numbers sound about right. This race should never have been considered competitive, and by all indications, it no longer is.

But on the plus side, another poll has confirmed Rendell's commanding lead in the PA gubernatorial contest. Rendell has a 47-33 lead in the race, in line with recent polling. Rendell is still below the magical 50 percent line, which is the only positive news for GOP candidate Mike Fisher. This race is all but over.

Next door in New Jersey, the first non partisan poll in the race, by the Bergen Record, has Lautenberg with a 6-point lead, 46-40. Can't you just see Forrester on his knees, praying the Supreme Court will rescue his candidacy? The poll's key finding:

The Record Poll found that if Torricelli were still running, Forrester would be ahead, 49 percent to 39 percent. The main reason Lautenberg fares better against Forrester is a radical shift by independent voters, said pollster Del Ali of Rockville, Md.-based Research 2000.

The poll conducted by Ali found 55 percent of independents favored Forrester over Torricelli, but only 34 percent support Forrester when he is matched up against Lautenberg.

"The parties are unified behind their candidates, but the key is the independents, and that's the disturbing thing for Forrester," Ali said. "Independents just went back to Lautenberg."

Finally, up in New Hampshire, a Republican poll has shown Jeanne Shaheen surging against her Republican rival, John Sununu. No numbers are given, but the state's GOP is clearly starting to worry. Their immediate target -- a write in campaign by wingnut hard-core backers of Sen. Smith (who was ousted by Sununu in the GOP primary). Smith has endorsed Sununu in the general election, but his support has been tepid at best. His continued reluctance to campaign with Sununu, or otherwise reiterate his support, would lend energy to the write-in campaign, draining precious votes from what is shaping up to be an extremely tight election.

Posted October 07, 2002 08:34 AM | Comments (8)


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