Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Thursday | October 10, 2002

Governor races, TX and MA

It's a partisan (D) poll, but at this rate, I'll take it. A Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates poll shows Perry and Sanchez in a statistical tie, with Perry leading 44-41 percent in the Texas gubernatorial race. The Laredo Times writes:

Paul Begala, host of Crossfire (CNN's political debate program), expressed surprise with the poll numbers.

"Wow," Begala said, in a telephone interview from Washington, D.C.

"If Perry is only at 44 and Sanchez is at 41, then it's very, very bad news for Perry. It means that 56 percent of the state has looked at him and is saying we need another governor," Begala said.

"It will be very hard for Rick Perry, in 27 days, to reverse a judgment that people have made over the course of his two years in office," he added.

Begala, who grew up in Texas, formerly ran and advised national and state Democratic campaigns. He is not advising the Sanchez campaign.

"I've run a lot of races for a lot of challengers and they almost always don't pull up ahead and take the lead (over an incumbent) until the day of election. This means that Tony Sanchez's message of being a tough fighter on insurance is really catching fire," Begala said.

Again, this all assumes the poll numbers aren't too skewed (as partisan polls are apt to be). However, given the pounding Perry has taken in regards to the state's skyrocketting insurance premiums, it's not inconceivable that Sanchez would make gains. He's probably not in a dead heat, but I would venture to guess that momentum and the issues favor him at this point.

Heading up north to my former haunting grounds, a Suffulk University poll now shows Dem gubernatorial candidate Shannon O'Brien with a commanding lead over her opponent Mitt Romney, 42-30. These results are significant, because the same polling outfit had O'Brien trailing 41-37 in late August, and a whopping 51-28 in July.

Also, check out this nifty graph tracking the race's poll numbers over the past few months. Click on image to enlarge.

Posted October 10, 2002 05:08 PM | Comments (0)


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