Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Friday | October 11, 2002

Colorado Senate race

If the GOP is to regain the Senate, it has to retain its Colorado seat. However, incumbent Wayne Allard is facing a strong challenge by Dem Tom Strickland. The latest poll in the race bears this out, with Allard winning by an anemic 39-35 (within the poll's margin of error). 4 percent of respondents chose the Libertarian candidate, and 18 percent undecided.

An old political adage states that in a race with an incumbent, undecideds generally break for the challenger by a 2-1 margin. If that holds up in this race, Strickland will win. And Allard's 39 percent is the lowest number for ANY incumbent Senator this election cycle.

"My first thought is that these numbers tend to reflect what we're seeing in our internal tracking," said Tovah Ravitz-Meehan, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

"Thirty-nine percent for an incumbent is very, very low. It's the lowest number of any incumbent in this election cycle on either side of the aisle."

Ravitz-Meehan said that in the 2000 campaign, six incumbents - five Republicans and one Democrat - headed into the election with numbers below 40 percent, as Allard now registers in the Talmey-Drake poll. All of them lost.

If Strickland and Arkansas' Pryor won their contests, it would give Democrats a 3-seat advantage that would be all but impossible for the GOP to overcome. If you have the funds to spare, please help out.

Posted October 11, 2002 09:54 AM | Comments (20)


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