Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Thursday | October 17, 2002

Guv race update

Did this once before and it was well-received. So here's an update.

Right now, Dems hold few governorships, a virtual sea of GOP red:

governor map now

Pretty bleak, huh? Thankfully, people are wising up to the carnage the GOP is leaving in its wake. If the elections were held today, and the latest polls in these races were accurate, the new map would look like this:

polls today

This is unchanged from two weeks ago. The Dems will take the governorships of high-population states Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, as well as Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Kansas, New Mexico, and Maine. And, they are slightly favored in Tennessee and Arizona. Dems should be able to hold Maryland, Alabama and Vermont, while Hawaii and New Hampshire look bleak (especially NH). The latest poll has Dems slightly ahead in Alaska, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that one.

Anyway, if all close races broke the Democrats' way, the post-election map would look like this:

best case scenario

I hated to do it, but I took New York off this map. McCall doesn't seem to be going anywhere but down. And while the latest polls show Texas' Sanchez traling his GOP opponent by double-digits, I expect the insurance issue and intense GOTV efforts to give him a boost election day. It'll be close enough to keep Perry up at night the next few weeks. I should probably take Minnesotta out, since the Dem candidate in that three-way race is trailing badly, but what the heck. It's my dream. Oklahoma is now on this map, which is nice, joining such unlikely states as Kansas and Wyoming. And doesn't Florida look absolutely splendid in blue? I think that color suits the state.

Will the map look like this post-election Wednesday? Probably not. But it's still fun to look at, right?

p.s. In these color coded maps, how did the GOP end up with communist red?

Posted October 17, 2002 08:44 AM | Comments (12)


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