Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Wednesday | December 18, 2002

Early poll on NY 2004 political landscape

Lots of interesting information in this Marist Poll of NY voters. It's an early poll, so much of the info is bunk. But, as a fuzzy snapshot it's still pretty good stuff.

First of all, Lieberman is the preferred candidate of the state's Democratic voters, picking up the bulk of Gore's old supporters. The numbers are thus:

Lieberman 23%
Kerry 20%
Sharpton 14%
Gephardt 11%
Daschle 9%
Edwards 3%
Dean 1%
Undecided 1%
The low number of undecideds is miniscule, which means the numbers include "leaners". Lieberman's numbers may not be so surprising, given the state's large Jewish population and NY's regional ties to Connecticut. But it will encourage him, and that's always dangerous.

Kerry is doing fine, for a Bay Stater in rival NY. Sharpton has his natural constituency in NY, so that's not surprising. What is surprising is the poor showings by Edwards and Dean. Ouch.

Bush's re-elect numbers are pretty heinous -- 36 percent. NY won't be competitive in 2004.

And, if Giuliani challenged Schumer in 2004, the former NYC mayor would win 58-37 percent. And the poll was conducted after the whole Lott mess. Of course, it's way too early to panic, but it will bear watching over the next two years.

(Via Political Wire)

Posted December 18, 2002 09:51 AM | Comments (79)


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