Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Thursday | January 09, 2003

56 percent will not vote for Bush

Kos here. I know it's hard to be on "hiatus" and still post at the same time, but I have somehow managed to pull of that miracle.

But helpful reader Eric H. sent me the following link to Zogby's latest poll and I had to share. The results are startling:

Slightly more than one in three voters (35%) say they would vote to re-elect President Bush regardless of who he runs against, compared to 56% who would not vote to re-elect Bush regardless of who he runs against.
Results also show that voters believe Democrats over Republicans are the party better able to handle jobs/economy (Democrats 43%, Republicans 36%), healthcare (Democrats 47%, Republicans 32%), the environment (Democrats 55%, Republicans 28%), and traditional values like tolerance (Democrats 45%, Republicans 30%).
These are amazing numbers. Not just the fact that 56 percent will not vote for Bush, regardless of who challenges him. But that the Democrats have pulled way ahead in the important "traditional value" of tolerance (not a favorite of the Lott/Ashcroft/Pickering gang). So it looks as though the Lott affair may have provided serious damage to the GOP -- damage that will cut deeper with the Pickering re-nomination.

Note that Bush's approval ratings are still at 63 percent. 51 percent of respondents think Bush deserves reelection. Yet only 35 percent would actually vote for him today. And 56 percent would not vote for him, period. Let that sink in for a second.

So where does Lott come in? It seems that while Bush may be personally popular, voters may be increasingly adverse to voting for a Republican. And what's happened since November's Republican gains? Lott. Throw in North Korea, more war talk, more tax cuts for the rich, more layoffs, Pickering the sequel, and more aggressive Dems, and altogether it makes Bush's incompetence much more difficult to disguise -- no matter how much people like his frat-boy shtick.

The poll also notes that the public is still split almost exactly down the middle on the Iraq II conflict. Bush should have more support after six months of trying to sell the war.

So everyone repeat after me: "Bush is beatable". It feels like Election Day 2002 happened six years ago, in another galaxy. The political map has been recast and it's suddenly advantage us (if only ever so slightly).

Now back to my regularly scheduled hiatus.

Update: I did some rewriting of the post after realizing I missed an entire paragraph when I first read the story. Now I know that Zogby asked about several "traditional values" (including integrity -- where the GOP wns 42-27 -- WTF?) and terrorism (GOP wins 54-20). There's a reason I am on hiatus...

Update 2: Disregard the stuff about "56 percent not voting for Bush". I misread the item. It means that Bush's hardcore support is at 35 percent, while 56 won't commit to Bush. As for the other 8 percent, who the heck knows. Apparently they can't commit to whether they can commit to Bush. I think I need an extra week off after this mess of a post. How embarrassing!

Posted January 09, 2003 03:49 PM | Comments (50)


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