Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Monday | July 28, 2003

Lieberman still leads AZ, Bush down

I just wrote how Arizona is not the solid Bush state Sabato (and others) think it is. Now I have polling proof of my claim (link is a PDF):

Among Arizona voters most likely to go to the polls in a presidential election, Mr. Bush’s job ratings are 54 percent positive to 20 percent unfavorable.

The decline in Mr. Bush’s popularity may also be having an impact on the willingness of Arizonans to support his re-election. Today 56 percent favor another term for Bush, but the proportion strongly committed to vote for him now registers at only 36 percent. The balance of his supporters (19 percent), say they are not firmly committed to his re-election. Opposition to a second term totals 39 percent, including 28 percent who say their opposition is firm. Overall, only eight points separate staunch supporters and opponents of his re-election.

Viewed from another perspective, if one adds together uncommitted voters and those neither firmly committed for or against Mr. Bush’s re-election, 36 percent of voters could be considered “swing voters” at this time. If the downward slope in his job ratings continues, by year’s end his ability to carry Arizona could be in question.

The same polling outfit (BRC Polls of Arizona) has the following numbers for the important Arizona primary (link is PDF):
Lieberman: 17
Kerry: 13
Gephardt: 9
Dean: 7
The rest: less than 2 percent
The pollsters further note:
None of the four leading candidates show any unique appeal within major voter subgroups such as women, older voters or families in upper or lower income brackets. On the other hand, Lieberman has a very strong appeal among Democrats with children living at home, blue-collar Democrats and among non-Hispanic minority voters. Geographically, Dean is making a strong challenge to Lieberman in Pima County.
This appears to be the first BRC poll on the race, so there are no trends to look at. Hopefully, they will continue regular polling of the race so we can assess which candidates are catching on and which are fading.

Lieberman is conceeding Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping to catch fire in South Carolina and Arizona. He'll need to maintain this lead in order to remain in the top tier of this race.

Posted July 28, 2003 11:36 AM


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