Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Tuesday | July 29, 2003

Second NH poll this week shows deadlocked race

That's two polls this week showing the New Hampshire race a dead-heat between Dean and Kerry. The latest Franklin Pierce University poll gave the following results (link is PDF. May 6 results in parenthesis.):

Undecided: 37 (31)
Dean: 22 (23)
Kerry: 21 (23)
Gephardt: 6 (8)
Lieberman: 6 (9)
Clark: 2 (2)
Edwards: 2 (1)
Others: 2 (*)
Biden: 1 (*)
Graham: 1 (1)
Sharpton: 0 (0)
Kucinich: 0 (1)
Braun: 0 (1)
This poll is bizarre for a couple of reasons -- first of all, it shows Kerry doing better than Dean amongst independents, contradicting every single other NH poll to date. Second of all, it shows Dean doing better amongst women than Kerry, again, contradicting just about every other NH poll thus far (including FP's own May 6 poll).

In the name ID contest, both Kerry (97%) and Dean (92%) have near universal name recognition. And despite the protestations of the anti-Dean element on this site, Dean's unfavorable rating ties Kerry's for lowest (only 10% for both candidates). People genuinely like both candidates, and why not? They're both good people.

The poll also measured "firmness of support", and again, Dean and Kerry are running neck-and-neck:

Definitely will support: 30%
Probably: 65%
Undecided: 5%

Definitely will support: 32%
Probably: 59%
Undecided: 8%

The pollsters conclude:
"As Howard Dean enjoys building name recognition and defining himself on his own terms,lg said Killion, iihe
has maintained the support garnered during the build-up of the conflict in Iraq. Since the last survey, Dean has added to his robust net positive favorability ratings through a persistent presence in the Granite State. Leveraged by commanding support in his neighboring second congressional district, Dean needs to make inroads into Senator Kerry's backyard -- the first congressional district -- before the influence of paid messages on broadcast media comes to be in the fall.

"Senator Kerry continues to put forth the most even foundation of opportunity in this race", said Killion. "Kerry's strong showing with independents, coupled with strong name identification, favorability ratings and balance across congressional district bode well for the fight ahead."

"As summer passes its halfway mark, second tier candidates need to start breaking out and moving into the first tier," said Killion, "Gephardt and Lieberman enjoy positive net favorability ratios but are lagging on the ballot
test and will need to draw contrasts with Kerry and Dean to propel themselves into the first tier. A challenge, no doubt, to do so during the summer and six months before an election."

Posted July 29, 2003 08:48 AM


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