Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Friday | August 01, 2003

Lieberman retains South Carolina lead

It may be nothing more than a statistical blip, but this is the first poll I've seen where Lieberman has actually shown an increase in support. The latest Zogby South Carolina poll gives us the following numbers (March results in parenthesis):

Undecided: 51 (58)
Lieberman: 13 (12)
Gephardt: 8 (10)
Sharpton: 8 (4)
Edwards: 5 (6)
Kerry: 5 (5)
Dean: 4 (1)
Graham: 3 (2)
Braun: 3 (2)
Kucinich: 0.2 (0.3)
SC is vital to both Lieberman, Graham and Edwards. The Kerry/Dean battle will have been resolved in New Hampshire, and neither will play in SC. Gephardt will have either won Iowa (and would win Missouri on this same day), or will have lost Iowa and be irrelevant at this point. In any case, SC is not a must-win for Gephardt.

But Lieberman, Graham and Edwards will have had little victory prospects until hitting the Feb 2 primaries. And these three will be duking it out for SC, Oklahoma and Arizona. New Mexico and Delaware (also on Feb. 2) are probably out of reach for this trio. (See Lieberman's "How they can win" scenario.)

As such, the Edwards and Graham numbers in this poll are devastating. And given that Lieberman's support has waned everywhere else, the fact he has remained even is a victory of sorts.

This poll's unfavorability ratings are quite interesting. Of those voters that were familiar with the candidate, the following percentages had unfavorable views of them (Zogby's national numbers in parenthesis):

Lieberman: 29 (28)
Gephardt: 20 (25)
Kerry: 32 (15)
Dean: 30 (15)
Edwards: 29 (21)
Lieberman's unfavorability ratings matched the national average. Gephardt was improved. The others, including next-door neighbor Edwards were significantly worse than the national average. Kerry and Dean, as the race's "liberals", are quite understandable. But what is Edwards' excuse?

Name ID is also quite low. Only 72 percent familiar with Lieberman? Did they sleep through 2000?

Given the internals of this poll, I'd say it should give Gephardt the biggest reason for optimism. His unfavorables are the best of the lot, and given the large number of undecideds, he may be best positioned to pick up that crowd.

I'm seeing a Gephardt/Dean race to the end.

Posted August 01, 2003 01:51 PM


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