Gallup has Bush at *50*

The Gallup poll has always been friendly to Bush. Nothing ideological or nefarious. But whatever methodology they used always gave Bush some of his highest numbers amongst the various polling outfits.

So it's amazing to see a 9-point drop in Bush's approval numbers over the past three weeks. That's no typo. The floor is collapsing under the Bush presidency.

Sep 19-21
Approve: 50
Disapprove: 47

Sep 8-10
Approve: 52
Disapprove: 43

Aug 25-26
Approve: 59
Disapprove: 37

Aug 4-5
Approve: 60
Disapprove: 36

Meanwhile, Clark jumps ahead to a major national lead: (Sep 8-10 results in parenthesis)

Clark 21 (9)
Undecided 17 (20)
Dean 12 (13)
Kerry 12 (11)
Lieberman 11 (12)
Gephardt 9 (15)
Sharpton 5 (3)
Edwards 4 (5)
Graham 4 (5)
Braun 3 (5)
Kucinich 2 (2)

It may be early, but I think it's safe to annoint Clark the frontrunner, allowing Dean to ease back into his original role as the insurgent. Ironically, Clark's entrance has provided Dean with some respite from incessant attacks, as his opponents have all shifted their guns to Clark.

This is the second poll in a row showing minor leakage for all candidates except for -- Gephardt. Funny how I assumed Gep would be the candidate least impacted by a Clark candidacy, and he's the only one getting pummeled.

But I have one other theory about Gep. Remember when Lieberman went on the offensive against Dean, and subsequently plummeted in the polls? And notice how Gephardt has been slamming Dean as of late?

Could it be the voters are turned off by negative campaigning? We could have some complicated maneouvering going on, where Gep supporters move to the undecided column, while many undecideds move to the Clark column.

It's probably not a zero-sum game. I still have a hard time seeing a mass of Gephardt supporters suddenly and directly shifting their support to Clark.

Just something to chew on.

Posted September 22, 2003 01:42 PM | Comments (482)