Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Tuesday | September 30, 2003

ARG poll: Edwards surging in SC

While Edwards' internal poll was obviously optimistic, the latest American Research Group poll shows that he is clearly showing momentum in South Carolina, with Clark hot on his heels:

Undecided 42 (48)
Edwards 16 (10)
Clark 7 (0)
Lieberman 7 (14)
Dean 6 (5)
Gephardt 5 (8)
Kerry 5 (6)
Sharpton 5 (4)
Braun 4 (1)
Graham 2 (2)
Kucinich 1 (1)
Lieberman, as usual, is hemorrhaging support.

Meanwhile, Gephardt is trumpeting an internal poll showing him with an increasing lead over Dean in Iowa. However, the internals haven't been released (which is always suspicious). From Gephardt's pollster:

"Gephardt now has a significant, seven-point lead over Dean, 24 percent to 17 percent. This represents an eight-point shift in Gephardt’s favor since July, when Dean held a slight, one-point advantage. Kerry remains in the third position, while Edwards and Clark lead the pack of single-digit candidates. Lieberman continues his decline among Iowa voters, losing about half of his support since July."
Meanwhile in New Hampshire, a Suffolk University poll finds that:
When asked, “if the Democratic Primary election for President were held today, toward whom would you lean,” 26% of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters selected Dean, while just 17% chose Kerry. Clark, who has opened most political observer’s eyes, polled 10%, passing seven existing Democratic Presidential candidates.

“Dean has crossed an important bridge,” said Suffolk University adjunct professor David Paleologos, a veteran pollster and author. “He’s linking likability to electability. New Hampshire voters are rewarding the candidate who is staying with a positive message and not attacking his or her competitors.”

Back in March, a 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll showed Kerry in first place with 32% of the votes, with Dean a distant third at just 10%.

“This is a wake-up call for John Kerry,” said Paleologos. “With the election just 115 days away, Kerry needs to re-connect with the voters that once supported him.”

According to the latest 7NEWS-Suffolk University survey, Dean’s popularity continues to rise. His favorable rating was 61%, while only 14% rated him unfavorably.

Clark, who entered the political arena less than two weeks ago, has already vaulted into third place on limited name recognition. While 49% of likely voters are undecided or have never heard of Clark, he still has passed better known candidates in a short period of time. This suggests that Clark has more room to grow as he continues to introduce himself along the New Hampshire campaign trail.

No internals are provided.

Posted September 30, 2003 09:27 AM | Comments (52)


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