Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Wednesday | October 01, 2003

Recall Arnold?

Jerome Armstrong

Arianna Huffington's last minute move is not toward Bustamante, but a plea to keep Davis, calling Arnold Schwarzenegger the "last thing'' California needs. According to the 'soothsayers', that's the only hope:

Paul Maslin, Davis' pollster, said the latest public polls are at odds with the campaign's internal surveys that show support for the recall between 51 percent and 54 percent.

"We have a shot," Maslin said of beating the recall, though he did not dispute Schwarzenegger's rise in the second part of the ballot.

"The second ballot is over," Maslin said. "It's not even a contest."

In a nutshell: Gov. Gray Davis' folks say their polls show Democratic "fallback" candidate Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is toast -- and will never overcome Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.

So there you have it, from one of the premier pollsters around. Maslin could be wrong, particularly if there is a very high turnout among Latino voters, or the Field poll shows something different, but let's see where this goes:

The polls show Davis behind, and Schwarzenegger ahead, and there's a big White Elephant that lingers for a Gov. Arnold....

The question is: Should CA Dems just knuckle over until 2006, suffering Schwarzenegger; or should they fight this hijack, and begin a Recall Effort on October 8th, after next Tuesday's election?

Update: Politus has found and posted the California law pertaining to the question of when a Recall effort for Arnold would be able to begin:

11006. Proceedings may be commenced for the recall of any elective officer, including any officer appointed in lieu of election or to fill a vacancy, by the service, filing and publication or posting of a notice of intention to circulate a recall petition pursuant to this chapter.

11007. Except when a person has been appointed to office pursuant to Section 10229 because no person had been nominated to office, proceedings may not be commenced against an officer of a city, county, special district, school district, community college district, or county board of education in the event of one or more of any of the following:

(a) He or she has not held office during his current term for more than 90 days.
(b) A recall election has been determined in his or her favor within the last six months.
(c) His or her term of office ends within six months or less.

I would concur with Politus that this means:

... a new recall would have to wait six months if Davis wins this recall election. I donít see any prohibition for immediately commencing a recall drive against a winning replacement candidate. In item (b) it is hard to make the case that Schwarzenegger could have the recall election determined in his favor because the only person involved in the recall election is Gray Davis. Schwarzenegger is on the replacement ballot.

Although, it seems that item (a) would apply, and that a recall petition must wait 90 days before submission. That's early January, which would make for the probable Recall of Arnold happening alongside the March 2nd Presidential primary.

Posted October 01, 2003 07:16 AM | Comments (238)


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