Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Tuesday | October 07, 2003


If you live in California, don't forget to vote.

I'm voting "No" on recall, "Bustamante" on the replacement ballot, and "No" on the voter initiatives.

The Davis camp claims their internals show a dead heat.

Seems a bit self-serving, obviously, but Arnold's support has undoubtedly softened the past few days.

A poll conducted by Elway-McGuire Research for Knight Ridder from Wednesday through Saturday found the percentage of people saying they would definitely vote to oust Davis dropped from 52 percent Wednesday to 44 percent Saturday. Pollsters surveyed 1,000 registered voters, including 284 people on Wednesday and 200 on Saturday. The poll had an overall margin of error of 3 percentage points, but the margin of error for individual days was not given.
Still, given that 20 percent of the state has already voted absentee, Arnold might just ride out any weakening in his position.

I still believe it'll all come down to turnout. Arnold's support has always been softer, celebrity driven. These people are always less likely to vote. And if they think Arnold will win it anyway, perhaps they'll be even more likely to stay home.

Of course, that could cut both ways, with Democratic voters staying home if they think their vote won't mean a thing.

We do have the unions on our corner, and they run a tight voter turnout operation in this state. At the end of the day, they might make the difference.

Oh, and unless there's a blowout, we probably won't have results tonight. Those darn absentee ballots will take a while to count.

Posted October 07, 2003 01:18 AM | Comments (140)


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