Daily Kos
Political analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation

Sunday | October 13, 2002

Weekend poll updates

The new Zogby numbers are out, and they are perplexing, to say the least. While Zogby's presidential polls have been dead on, his state polls seem to be less accurate. If nothing else, they seem to be all over the place from poll to poll. So, whether your favorite candidate is ahead or not, I wouldn't rest too easy. The numbers in parenthesis are the last Zogby poll numbers

Hutchinson (R) 45.2 (43)
Pryor 45.4 (D) (45)

Strickland (D) 40.5% (41.5)
Allard (R) 40.1% (41.6)

Illinois Governor's race
Ryan (R) 36.6%
Blagojovich (D) 47.5%

Illinois Senate race
Durbin (D) 56.9%
Durkin (R) 27.4%

Wellstone (D) 46% (41)
Coleman (R) 37% (47)

Carnahan (D) 40.8 (47.6)
Talent (R) 47.3% (40.3)

New Jersey
Lautenberg (D) 48%
Forrester (R) 36%

South Carolina
Graham (R) 47%
Sanders (D) 35%

South Dakota
Johnson (D) 43% (46)
Thune (R) 45% (43)

Alexander (R) 49% (45)
Clement (D) 36% (37)

Cornyn (R) 45% (42)
Kirk (D) 37% (30)

Carnahan's numbers are a complete reversal of the last Zogby poll (both of which have been within the margin of error -- the race is still in a statistical tie). The poll does have one worrisome (for Dems) finding -- Carnahan's lead among women has been eroded. Carnahan has been trying to woo men. Talent has been wooing women. The result? Men seem to be sticking with Talent, while women are now split evenly between the two candidates. Who wants to be that Carnahan doesn't spend the next three weeks talking about "women" issues?

Click here if you want more on the Illinois polls.

The Arkansas race is dead even, and will probably remain so until election day. However, the old political adage is that undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent. If that trend holds up here, Hutchinson is toast.

Some may argue the same process may be at work in South Dakota. True, if undecideds break for Thune by a 2-1 margin, Sen. Johnson is toast. However, we have two incumbents in that race. Thune is SD's sole, at-large US representative. The rule shouldn't apply. On the other hand, that old adage should really scare Sens Carnahan and Allard. If that rule holds up, they are both history come election day.

BTW, Colorado's Allard continues to have trouble getting past the 40 percent mark. In the last election cycle, every incumbent senator polling below 40 percent lost his election. In poll after poll, Allard sits at or below that 40 percent mark.

The MN numbers are interesting. Are we to believe that the race has seen a 14-point shift in the past two weeks? While I would love to believe that Wellstone's anti-war vote and VFW endorsement helped raise his levels of support, I find it hard to believe that he was so far behind two weeks ago, and he's so far ahead this week. This may be an example of the margin of error gone mad. Same goes for the MO poll. I'm always suspicious of huge shifts in the numbers without an obvious catalyst (such as major campaign blunder or explosive revelation).

New Jersey is a done deal. Lautenberg II will be the next senator from the great state of NJ.

Posted October 13, 2002 10:49 AM | Comments (10)


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